Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60ef…b24b sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-2%) realized −$189 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$540
other 24% +$319
crypto 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -7.9% -16.6% 39% 37% -12.3%
≤30d 46 -7.9% -16.6% 39% 37% -12.3%
≤90d 46 -7.9% -16.6% 39% 37% -12.3%
all 46 -7.9% -16.6% 39% 37% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -12.3%
10% -24.6% 37% -20.7%
15% -31.9% 37% -28.4%
20% -38.6% 33% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$125 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage7d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $395 $391 −$4 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $152 +$131 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $146 +$154 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $303 +$158 +52%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $305 −$77 -25%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $235 +$315 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$119 +39%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $304 +$154 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$83 +238%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 −$150 -74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$86 -85%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $251 −$248 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $609 −$300 -49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 −$10 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $617 +$4 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $292 +$232 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $130 +$234 +180%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $299 −$170 -57%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$18 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$6 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $248 +$240 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$7 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $202 +$137 +67%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $99 +$72 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $710 −$125 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $265 −$100 -38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $594 +$265 +45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $267 −$20 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$222 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $136 −$97 -72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$22 -7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $23 −$5 -23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $362 −$358 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $341 +$358 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $181 −$178 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $198 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $182 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $203 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $45 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 21h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $152 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $203 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3¢ $103 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $303 25h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 38¢ $227 26h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $101 26h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 48¢ $203 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $235 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $203 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $35 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $19 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $15 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $34 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 53¢ $251 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $304 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $102 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $202 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 42¢ $288 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $293 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.66 · official $569.66 (match) · 109 history records