Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60f0…7dd5 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$381 (+8%) realized +$383 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day170.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$893
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +20.3% +8.8% 45% 39% -29.3%
≤30d 31 +20.3% +8.8% 45% 39% -29.3%
≤90d 31 +20.3% +8.8% 45% 39% -29.3%
all 31 +20.3% +8.8% 45% 39% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 39% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -1.6% 32% -36.0%
15% -11.1% 26% -42.2%
20% -19.8% 19% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$109 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$383
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day170.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 15¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $0 $0 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $256 −$256 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $377 −$377 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $221 +$82 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$62 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $111 +$185 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $115 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $454 −$435 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $234 +$113 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $623 +$41 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $550 −$95 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $336 +$205 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $208 −$76 -36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$27 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $221 +$113 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $181 +$184 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $112 −$110 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $12 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 39m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 5¢ $1 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.13 · official $6.76 · 180 history records