Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x60f1…cb3e crypto 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,412 (+1%) realized +$2,404 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate79%270W / 73L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$753per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days−$257
14 days−$199
30 days+$1,306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2,820
economics 1% −$2
other 1% −$2
world 0% −$9
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 74% 9% -11.4%
≤30d 117 +2.6% -7.2% 85% 11% -7.8%
≤90d 258 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 9% -9.1%
all 343 +2.8% -7.0% 79% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 10% -8.6%
10% -15.9% 7% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 4% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$634) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$72 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,049
Realized+$2,404
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses270 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)343 / 349
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$753
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $306 $315 +$9 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? No 97¢ 96¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 90¢ 90¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 86¢ 86¢ $172 $172 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? No 82¢ 78¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 21 $1,123 +$32 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $1,107 +$284 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $480 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $446 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 18? Jun 19 $240 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 19 $1,678 −$528 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $194 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $240 +$14 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $500 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $970 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $650 −$11 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $289 +$9 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 16 $230 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $322 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $267 −$3 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $801 −$10 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $2,372 −$76 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $161 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $500 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $161 +$8 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$6 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 12 $104 −$32 -31%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $116 −$26 -22%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $280 +$16 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $369 +$14 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $659 +$13 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $301 +$10 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $39 +$11 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $100 59m
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 86¢ $172 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $15 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $981 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $301 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $109 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $32 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $63 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $90 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $13 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $15 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $55 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $25 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $97 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 99¢ $1 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $280 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $200 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $100 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $502 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $62 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $91 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $145 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $93 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $18 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,048.91 · official $1,048.40 (match) · 3500 history records