Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

60 0x60f6…19ce other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-3.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+6.4%	-3.8%	100%	0%	-2.6%
≤30d	2	+6.4%	-3.8%	100%	0%	-2.6%
≤90d	2	+6.4%	-3.8%	100%	0%	-2.6%
all	2	+6.4%	-3.8%	100%	0%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.8%	0%	-2.6%
10%	-13.0%	0%	-11.9%
15%	-21.4%	0%	-20.5%
20%	-29.1%	0%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$51

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage6d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	66¢	68¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$50	+$4	+8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$5	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	92¢	$50	4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$5	5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	94¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.78 · official $50.78 (match) · 5 history records