Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60f6…a196 sports 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$849 (+7%) realized +$212 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate46%62W / 72L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day131.0pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$201
14 days+$234
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$37
other 39% +$206
crypto 4% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +7.2% -3.1% 47% 21% -6.9%
≤30d 134 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 17% -6.5%
≤90d 134 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 17% -6.5%
all 134 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 17% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 17% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 12% -15.4%
15% -25.7% 9% -23.6%
20% -33.0% 8% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses62 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage19d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day131.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? No $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Yes 85¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Australia leading at halftime? No $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Under $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? No $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? No $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-31? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Under 25¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 Over $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$4 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 +$4 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $346 −$10 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $239 +$26 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $123 −$13 -11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,537 +$56 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $736 −$12 -2%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $115 +$7 +6%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$9 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$3 -13%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $701 +$62 +9%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$4 -53%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $663 −$21 -3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $17 −$12 -71%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $979 +$45 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $527 +$21 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $55 +$6 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $121 +$11 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $75 −$15 -20%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +26%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $24 −$2 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $208 −$6 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $137 −$2 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $123 +$1 +1%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $185 +$82 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -10%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $289 −$34 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $629 −$1 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $213 +$21 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $63 +$12 +19%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador leading at halftime? SELL Yes $1 46m
Ecuador leading at halftime? SELL Yes $0 47m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes $0 47m
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 47m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2532 history records