Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60fb…5e4c weather 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%115W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$8
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 56 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 106 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 121 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×106.97 per $1 lost it wins $106.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses115 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage122d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $121 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $119 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $96 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 1? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 30? May 31 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 29? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 29? May 30 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? May 29 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $121 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $120 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $120 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $120 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $101 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 8d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $19 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $120 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $119 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $120 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $119 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $119 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $119 13d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $119 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $119 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $43 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $77 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $22 18d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $78 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $118 18d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $118 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $94 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $24 20d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $97 20d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $22 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.66 · official $121.66 (match) · 245 history records