Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

60 0x60fc…cd93 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$21 (+8%) realized +$27 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate78%18W / 5L

Drawdown93%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day16.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+11.8%	+1.1%	78%	57%	-2.4%
≤30d	23	+11.8%	+1.1%	78%	57%	-2.4%
≤90d	23	+11.8%	+1.1%	78%	57%	-2.4%
all	23	+11.8%	+1.1%	78%	57%	-2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.1%	57%	-2.4%
10%	-8.6%	30%	-11.7%
15%	-17.4%	22%	-20.3%
20%	-25.5%	13%	-28.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

28% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late +5% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses18 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day16.3

Drawdown93%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	64¢	$27	$21	−$6 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$36	+$6	+17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$32	+$3	+10%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 22	$3	−$3	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$24	+$11	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 22	$13	−$13	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	+$6	+60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$2	+30%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	+$8	+388%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$17	+$2	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 21	$3	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$1	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$6	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$1	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 21	$5	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$1	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$2	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 21	$8	+$2	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$4	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$1	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$27	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$42	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$36	15h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$32	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$24	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$8	39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$5	39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$5	40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$7	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$5	2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$12	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$6	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$5	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$17	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$14	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$8	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$6	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.50 · official $20.82 (match) · 46 history records