Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
60 0x60fe…4478 sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$390 (+11%) realized +$401 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%69W / 95L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$31
14 days+$25
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$72
other 30% +$81
world 3% −$5
crypto 2% +$219
politics 0% −$8
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.4% -24.3% 41% 37% -4.1%
≤30d 107 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 36% -7.9%
≤90d 164 +22.6% +10.9% 42% 33% -1.1%
all 164 +22.6% +10.9% 42% 33% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 33% -1.1%
10% +0.3% 32% -10.6%
15% -9.4% 30% -19.2%
20% -18.3% 27% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$401
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses69 / 95
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions17
Markets (closed)164 / 181
History coverage88d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 94¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Portugal 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $30 +$7 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$2 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$6 -61%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 −$10 -10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Northampton Saints/Leicester Tigers win? Jun 20 $101 +$41 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$5 -24%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +339%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $120 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 1h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 9h
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $5 9h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 81¢ $30 15h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 15h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 97¢ $100 15h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 35h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $4 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 91¢ $101 35h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $100 37h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 86¢ $90 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Northampton Saints/Leicester Tigers win? SELL Yes 99¢ $142 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Northampton Saints/Leicester Tigers win? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.83 · official $282.83 (match) · 329 history records