Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6101…23bc sports 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,460 (-4%) realized −$6,460 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%59W / 63L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,371per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$3,673est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$658
7 days−$668
14 days−$317
30 days−$10,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$8,207
world 0% −$78
economics 0% −$10
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +4.4% -5.6% 29% 29% -11.0%
≤30d 73 +15.4% +4.4% 40% 36% -27.8%
≤90d 122 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 43% -14.5%
all 122 +4.0% -5.9% 48% 43% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 43% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 34% -22.7%
15% -23.1% 21% -30.2%
20% -30.7% 14% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$449 vs −$561 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,460
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses59 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$3,673
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage83d
Avg bet$1,371
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $82 +$35 +43%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $102 +$470 +458%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $305 +$660 +216%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $1 +$5 +387%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $1,515 −$1,500 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $710 −$168 -24%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $102 −$25 -24%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $2,025 −$10 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $103 −$25 -24%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $1,575 −$173 -11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $102 −$16 -16%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $1,016 −$21 -2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3,939 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $304 −$158 -52%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $306 −$240 -78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $2,834 −$478 -17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $557 −$203 -36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $506 +$62 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $502 −$4 -1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,821 −$45 -2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $1,117 +$825 +74%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $505 −$121 -24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $363 −$26 -7%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1,515 +$238 +16%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $290 −$75 -26%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $354 −$100 -28%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $511 +$347 +68%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1,010 +$291 +29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $612 +$89 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1,019 +$863 +85%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $102 −$40 -39%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $140 −$137 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $254 −$250 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,016 +$1,005 +99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $505 −$279 -55%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $218 −$38 -18%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $59 +$17 +29%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $41 +$22 +53%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $41 +$10 +24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $37 +$18 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $255 +$104 +41%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $85 +$78 +91%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $56 −$33 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 17¢ $31 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 23¢ $112 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 10¢ $51 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 17¢ $102 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 12¢ $103 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 61¢ $6 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 12¢ $1 20h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $132 20h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $203 20h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $1,515 22h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 31¢ $204 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 36¢ $77 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $102 25h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 67¢ $526 25h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ $506 25h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 11¢ $103 47h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 3¢ $10 47h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 94¢ $2,500 47h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 75¢ $2,015 47h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 8¢ $78 47h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 10¢ $103 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 7¢ $51 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 21¢ $171 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 12¢ $103 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 12¢ $125 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 28¢ $306 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 21¢ $121 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 17¢ $102 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $461 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $506 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 899 history records