Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6105…c683 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$13
politics 14% −$7
other 4% +$31
sports 1% −$58
tech 1% +$5
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.5% +20.8% 50% 25% +4.3%
≤30d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 19% 6% -7.0%
≤90d 46 +3.2% -6.6% 24% 17% -11.2%
all 57 +2.6% -7.2% 25% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 14% -9.7%
10% -16.0% 14% -18.4%
15% -24.2% 14% -26.3%
20% -31.6% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage599d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $6 +$8 +134%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $8 +$12 +165%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $10 +$7 +72%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $9 +$4 +42%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Apr 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 29 $21 +$8 +37%
Oilers vs. Utah Mar 26 $20 +$26 +127%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $21 +$41 +194%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $91 +$5 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $13,543 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $6 29h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.30 · official $49.30 (match) · 245 history records