Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x6108…20a5 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,202 (+6%) realized +$1,105 · open +$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,002per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$4,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$1,381
world 8% +$32
sports 0% +$11
weather 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +8.8% -1.6% 100% 39% -2.3%
≤30d 18 +8.8% -1.6% 100% 39% -2.3%
≤90d 18 +8.8% -1.6% 100% 39% -2.3%
all 18 +8.8% -1.6% 100% 39% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 39% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -11.6%
15% -19.6% 0% -20.2%
20% -27.5% 0% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,325) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4,169
Realized+$1,105
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,002
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,738 $1,771 +$32 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,344 $1,399 +$56 (+4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $990 $999 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $318 +$62 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,924 +$76 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $243 +$57 +24%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Cal Jun 26 $99 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? Jun 26 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $470 +$29 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,325 +$149 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $950 +$50 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $580 +$18 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $960 +$40 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,395 +$28 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,018 +$202 +20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,442 +$58 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,204 +$144 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,203 +$115 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,305 +$206 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,002 +$81 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $990 13m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $242 23m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 98¢ $394 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 92¢ $230 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 96¢ $481 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $420 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $471 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $470 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $243 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $21 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $151 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $228 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $24 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $30 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 97¢ $30 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $318 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $942 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $71 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $53 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $31 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $29 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $10 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $18 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $193 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $87 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,169.34 · official $4,168.34 (match) · 87 history records