Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x6108…eafa politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$688 (-9%) realized −$682 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$200
14 days−$179
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$710
sports 30% +$281
other 25% +$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.5% -1.8% 75% 38% -5.9%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 33% -11.4%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 31% -11.2%
all 13 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 31% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 31% -11.2%
10% -18.7% 15% -19.7%
15% -26.6% 8% -27.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$215 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized−$682
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage31d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $700 $694 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,406 +$220 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $405 +$32 +8%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $1,103 −$403 -36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $601 +$50 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $483 +$165 +34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $403 +$10 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $333 +$137 +41%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 11 $208 −$10 -5%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $491 +$21 +4%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $503 +$79 +16%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 20 $802 −$48 -6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $103 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,626 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,406 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $436 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $405 2h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 60¢ $700 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $651 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $601 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $483 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $414 47h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $403 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $470 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $131 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 4d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL No 56¢ $197 4d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 53¢ $102 12d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 66¢ $304 12d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $512 12d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 89¢ $100 12d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 93¢ $1,003 12d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $583 18d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $201 20d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 36¢ $754 26d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 54¢ $4 27d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 36¢ $802 29d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $113 30d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 57¢ $203 30d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 30d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $491 30d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $503 31d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $502 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.00 · official $694.00 (match) · 59 history records