Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610a…186d crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$772 (-32%) realized −$772 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$470
other 9% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 35% -35.5%
≤30d 23 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 35% -35.5%
≤90d 23 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 35% -35.5%
all 23 -26.0% -33.1% 39% 35% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 35% -35.5%
10% -39.5% 35% -41.7%
15% -45.3% 35% -47.3%
20% -50.7% 30% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$105 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$772
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage9d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$169 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$103 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$79 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$155 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$75 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $106 +$41 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$65 +61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$85 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $108 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $109 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $211 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $108 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $108 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $264 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $183 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $107 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $108 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $106 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $71 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $107 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $109 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $108 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $107 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $110 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $54 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records