Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610a…c83b other 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$222 (-5%) realized −$181 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$44
14 days−$68
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$226
sports 24% +$8
tech 20% −$25
world 16% −$39
crypto 4% −$17
economics 4% −$4
politics 3% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 20% -12.6%
≤30d 81 -12.6% -20.9% 31% 28% -15.0%
≤90d 81 -12.6% -20.9% 31% 28% -15.0%
all 81 -12.6% -20.9% 31% 28% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 28% -15.0%
10% -28.5% 20% -23.2%
15% -35.4% 17% -30.6%
20% -41.7% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 56
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)81 / 87
History coverage22d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $70 $83 +$13 (+18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-4%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 69¢ 35¢ $47 $24 −$23 (-49%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 81¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 4¢ $33 $3 −$30 (-91%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $81 +$39 +48%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 25 $93 −$2 -2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $80 +$12 +15%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $167 −$5 -3%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $29 +$6 +19%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $80 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $141 −$20 -14%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $233 +$1 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $70 +$20 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 +$11 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $81 +$23 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 14 $71 −$2 -3%
Julia Grabher vs. Nuria Brancaccio: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Gorgodze (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) Jun 14 $36 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $81 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $80 −$17 -21%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $80 +$31 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $80 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $71 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$18 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$14 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $1 12m
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $0 14m
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 94¢ $57 1h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $70 6h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 77¢ $47 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $49 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $32 6h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 54¢ $91 27h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 54¢ $93 27h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $92 28h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 51¢ $32 28h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 48¢ $1 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $70 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 29h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 86¢ $70 41h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $4 42h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $27 42h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $60 42h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $2 42h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $36 42h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $32 42h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $167 42h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 2d
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.88 · official $197.56 (match) · 437 history records