Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610b…36a3 sports 1385 markets active 4h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$942 (-1%) realized −$907 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%627W / 720L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$651est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$770now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$488
14 days−$323
30 days−$1,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,487
crypto 36% −$3,367
world 4% +$202
other 2% −$166
politics 1% +$196
finance 0% +$46
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -34.3% -40.6% 39% 34% -34.4%
≤30d 222 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 41% -19.9%
≤90d 924 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 43% -11.5%
all 1347 -10.5% -19.0% 47% 43% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 43% -11.6%
10% -26.8% 39% -20.1%
15% -33.8% 36% -27.8%
20% -40.3% 30% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$770
Realized−$907
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses627 / 720
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$651
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1347 / 1385
History coverage134d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 35¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-25%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-77%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 480 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $10 +$10 +102%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$50 -49%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $60 +$63 +105%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$11 +69%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $101 +$91 +90%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $102 +$8 +8%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $102 +$27 +27%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $102 −$5 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $27 +$6 +23%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $152 +$19 +12%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $504 +$90 +18%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $20 −$2 -8%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $51 +$5 +10%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $102 +$55 +54%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $20 +$13 +62%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$8 +69%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 87¢ $21 4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 42¢ $10 4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 22h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 50¢ $22 23h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $20 24h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 38¢ $20 24h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 64¢ $20 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $51 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down $11 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 46h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 33¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 100¢ $123 2d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 62¢ $7 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 51¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 45¢ $5 2d
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 51¢ $8 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 21¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $769.82 · official $770.10 (match) · 2658 history records