Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610f…7148 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$31 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day104.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 42% -9.8%
≤30d 76 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 42% -9.8%
≤90d 76 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 42% -9.8%
all 76 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 42% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 42% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 38% -18.5%
15% -37.1% 34% -26.3%
20% -43.3% 32% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day104.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 73¢ 40¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 55¢ 60¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $77 −$29 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$22 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$29 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $68 −$26 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $76 −$31 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$8 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $33 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $32 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $36 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $17 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $32 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $30 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $23 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $40 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.59 · official $33.03 (match) · 143 history records