Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x610f…ed90 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$53 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$35
other 11% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 40 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 50% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 50% -18.6%
10% -15.8% 45% -26.3%
15% -24.0% 35% -33.5%
20% -31.4% 22% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage105d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 97¢ $51 $80 +$29 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 07 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 07 $42 −$37 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 07 $44 +$16 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 07 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 07 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 07 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 07 $37 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 07 $19 +$39 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 07 $11 +$19 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 07 $2 +$9 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 07 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 07 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 07 $23 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 07 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 07 $23 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 07 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 07 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 07 $47 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 07 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 07 $19 +$17 +92%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 07 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 07 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 07 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 07 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 07 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 07 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 07 $7 +$11 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 07 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 07 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $60 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.04 · official $80.16 (match) · 215 history records