Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6110…5d2e
crypto · 138 markets active 1h ago
8.0score
+$9,679 +244%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,997 · open +$2,530
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,921
Realized+$6,997
Unrealized+$2,530
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses50 / 70
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)120 / 138
History coverage111d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 18 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days+$7,052
30 days+$7,052
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 88¢ $1,078 $3,623 +$2,544 (+236%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $123 $113 −$10 (-8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 26¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 +$3 +9%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $108 −$41 -38%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $46 −$6 -14%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $21 −$7 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $42 −$18 -44%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 11 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 10 $16 −$2 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 05 $61 −$6 -9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $505 +$5,756 +1139%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 03 $50 −$26 -51%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 −$4 -34%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 −$5 -26%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first rou Jun 03 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $219 +$1,407 +643%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 22 $31 −$25 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET Mar 02 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 02 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET Mar 02 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 75% +$9,640
other 15% −$34
crypto 10% −$78
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $7 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 14h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 14h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $37 17h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 17h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $47 17h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $27 17h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.6% -17.3% 24% 6% -20.4%
≤30d 25 +59.7% +44.5% 24% 12% +429.9%
≤90d 39 +9.1% -1.3% 15% 8% +410.2%
all 120 +7.1% -3.1% 42% 38% +366.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 38% +366.5%
10% -12.4% 38% +321.8%
15% -20.9% 35% +281.1%
20% -28.6% 32% +243.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,920.58 · official $3,920.58 (match) · 385 history records