Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
61 0x6111…4742 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,830 (+26%) realized +$28,825 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%32W / 20L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$2,063per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$1,589est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$258
30 days+$1,569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$28,129
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 46% 46% -4.4%
≤90d 52 +18.5% +7.2% 62% 62% +13.6%
all 52 +18.5% +7.2% 62% 62% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.2% 62% +13.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.0% 60% +2.7%
15% -12.4% 60% -7.2%
20% -21.0% 54% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,746) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,954 vs −$1,721 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,072
Realized+$28,825
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,589
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2,063
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $971 $960 −$11 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $97 $112 +$15 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $358 −$258 -72%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $4,160 +$3,840 +92%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $3,241 +$2,679 +83%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,888 −$1,880 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $1,062 +$938 +88%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $515 −$508 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,061 +$939 +88%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 28 $4,931 −$4,930 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $827 −$820 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $4,160 −$160 -4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,135 +$2,865 +134%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,055 +$945 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,275 +$1,725 +76%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,612 +$1,388 +86%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,275 −$1,275 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $1,260 +$1,740 +138%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $2,000 +$3,000 +150%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $2,787 −$2,750 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $2,737 +$2,263 +83%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 22 $1,711 +$1,317 +77%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $2,827 +$1,307 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $4,797 −$4,730 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) May 21 $1,695 −$1,666 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $4,380 +$3,620 +83%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $3,052 +$4,096 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $2,652 +$1,348 +51%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) May 20 $1,427 −$1,404 -98%
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) May 20 $1,856 −$1,845 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $3,015 +$2,725 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $662 +$651 +98%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5) May 19 $1,629 +$2,371 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $2,262 −$2,251 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $2,070 +$258 +12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $602 −$595 -99%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) May 17 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $1,208 +$792 +66%
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) May 16 $1,240 +$760 +61%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 16 $2,000 +$1,721 +86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $2,746 +$1,254 +46%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5) May 15 $305 +$343 +112%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) May 15 $509 +$570 +112%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 15 $2,850 +$2,150 +75%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $9,950 +$10,050 +101%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 14 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 14 $1,980 +$849 +43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $117 +$113 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $999 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $99 12d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 18¢ $100 12d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 26d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3,241 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $263 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $471 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $268 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $44 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $6 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $46 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $17 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $2 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $6 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $2 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $188 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $9 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $9 27d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 47¢ $9 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,071.80 · official $1,071.80 (match) · 423 history records