Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6116…9e3b
other · 29 markets active 20h ago
4.5score
+$27 +45%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$22
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)16 / 29
History coverage44d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 13 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 25¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 35¢ 19¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? No 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 41¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 13 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +104%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $4 +$4 +94%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 20 $1 +$6 +632%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia May 17 $1 +$2 +159%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $3 +$5 +175%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw? May 02 $2 +$3 +125%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? May 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? May 02 $6 +$4 +65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 01 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$17
world 35% +$4
politics 7% −$2
sports 7% +$5
tech 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL Yes 54¢ $4 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $4 3d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $3 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 7d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 22d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 22d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 28d
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia BUY Slovenia 38¢ $1 28d
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 28d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 28d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes $1 28d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 29d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 31d
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL No 25¢ $1 33d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 21¢ $1 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $2 36d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 48¢ $3 37d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 41d
Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 42d
Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+85.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +89.0% +71.0% 100% 100% +56.9%
≤30d 8 +178.8% +152.2% 100% 100% +118.1%
≤90d 16 +104.7% +85.2% 88% 88% +66.3%
all 16 +104.7% +85.2% 88% 88% +66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.2% 88% +66.3%
10% +67.5% 81% +50.3%
15% +51.3% 81% +35.8%
20% +36.4% 69% +22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.50 · official $22.50 (match) · 47 history records