Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x6117…7d58 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$178 (-16%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$86
crypto 37% −$85
other 10% −$4
finance 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 29 -24.2% -31.4% 48% 41% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 41% -30.6%
10% -38.0% 31% -37.2%
15% -44.0% 17% -43.3%
20% -49.5% 14% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage134d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $34 −$34 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 19 $105 −$36 -34%
Men's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland Feb 18 $60 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 18 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 18 $48 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 18 $90 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 17 $84 −$50 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 17 $47 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 17 $40 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 17 $37 +$3 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $52 −$8 -15%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 16 $109 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 11 $23 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Titouan Droguet Feb 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 06 $31 +$15 +48%
76ers vs. Lakers Feb 06 $1 +$1 +100%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 06 $30 −$21 -69%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 06 $39 +$2 +5%
Jazz vs. Hawks Feb 06 $2 $0 +20%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 06 $15 +$4 +30%
Islanders vs. Devils Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Feb 06 $2 +$4 +153%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-05? Feb 05 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-05? Feb 05 $10 −$7 -72%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 05 $61 +$19 +32%
Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings ca Feb 04 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Google say "Privacy" during earnings call? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google say "Regulator" or "Regulation" or "Regulatory" during ear Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY India 68¢ $34 116d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) BUY Sri Lanka $5 119d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) BUY Sri Lanka 40¢ $10 119d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) BUY Sri Lanka 73¢ $20 119d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) SELL Sri Lanka 73¢ $69 119d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) BUY Sri Lanka 74¢ $70 120d
Men's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland SELL Switzerland 85¢ $70 120d
Men's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland BUY Switzerland 72¢ $60 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $59 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $59 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $48 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $48 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $40 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $40 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $50 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $48 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $18 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $16 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $37 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $58 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $47 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $48 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $40 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $40 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $37 121d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 38¢ $4 121d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 39¢ $3 121d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 39¢ $1 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.68 · official $99.68 (match) · 77 history records