Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
61 0x6118…8a3a sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$163 (+12%) realized +$8 · open +$155
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$254
14 days+$221
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$257
other 22% +$126
tech 8% −$20
finance 5% +$17
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +73.3% +56.8% 71% 68% +24.4%
≤30d 40 +52.2% +37.7% 65% 62% +10.3%
≤90d 40 +52.2% +37.7% 65% 62% +10.3%
all 40 +52.2% +37.7% 65% 62% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.7% 62% +10.3%
10% +24.5% 55% -0.2%
15% +12.5% 55% -9.9%
20% +1.4% 45% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage14d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 100¢ $130 $233 +$102 (+78%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 96¢ $139 $197 +$57 (+41%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 23 $22 +$1 +6%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 +$24 +46%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $80 +$13 +16%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$16 +76%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $54 −$2 -5%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $81 −$1 -2%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $36 +$14 +40%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $36 +$39 +109%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 21 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$11 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 20 $11 +$67 +596%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $11 +$8 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$18 +172%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 +$17 +474%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 +$29 +250%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$39 +393%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $11 +$7 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +85%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +115%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $51 +$28 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $81 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $90 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 9h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $52 25h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $34 25h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $46 25h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $0 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $51 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $79 25h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $10 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $20 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 31h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 31h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $36 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 71¢ $36 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $21 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $12 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $11 4d
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $49 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $12 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 14¢ $11 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.72 · official $434.72 (match) · 101 history records