Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x611a…e171 sports 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,865 (+1%) realized +$5,320 · open −$455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%183W / 94L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,849per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$2,567est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$861
7 days+$2,537
14 days−$7,651
30 days−$1,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$14,100
world 7% +$1,368
politics 3% +$17
crypto 3% −$10,168
other 0% −$816
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 62% -4.6%
≤30d 154 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 56% -10.3%
≤90d 277 -3.7% -12.9% 66% 52% -8.4%
all 277 -3.7% -12.9% 66% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 52% -8.4%
10% -21.2% 45% -17.2%
15% -28.8% 36% -25.2%
20% -35.8% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,102) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$842 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$2,452
Realized+$5,320
Unrealized−$455
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses183 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2,567
Open positions7
Markets (closed)277 / 284
History coverage163d
Avg bet$1,849
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 69¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,440 +$440 (+44%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 84¢ $507 $614 +$107 (+21%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1,000 $7 −$993 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $360 −$353 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $506 −$490 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,057 −$1,042 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $507 +$403 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $983 +$498 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,003 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,000 +$450 +45%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,013 +$507 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $506 +$533 +105%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,016 +$384 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $242 −$233 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $413 −$413 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,010 +$400 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $14,607 +$297 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $505 +$242 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,688 −$1,680 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9,806 +$184 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,072 −$1,064 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $567 +$433 +76%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $510 +$330 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,513 +$757 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $549 +$228 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $518 +$282 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $529 +$171 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $518 +$282 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $518 +$282 +55%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $576 +$231 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $560 +$440 +79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,016 +$874 +86%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $179 +$55 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,010 +$420 +42%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $341 +$439 +129%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10,682 +$255 +2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $83 −$83 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $11,572 +$34 +0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $508 +$221 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,000 +$500 +50%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,787 +$2,213 +79%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,016 −$1,004 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $524 −$524 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,012 −$1,001 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,015 −$1,005 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $517 19m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 49m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $186 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $828 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 72¢ $504 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $505 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 4¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $340 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 2¢ $16 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 4¢ $35 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $515 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $54 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $454 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $506 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $505 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $507 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $511 24h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $880 25h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $103 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $59 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $617 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $207 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $57 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 69¢ $34 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $25 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,451.70 · official $2,451.70 (match) · 1283 history records