Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x611b…e89d crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-29%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 128d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$7
crypto 26% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -61.5% -65.1% 33% 33% -25.7%
≤30d 3 -61.5% -65.1% 33% 33% -25.7%
≤90d 3 -61.5% -65.1% 33% 33% -25.7%
all 8 -33.9% -40.2% 50% 50% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 50% -33.6%
10% -46.0% 25% -39.9%
15% -51.2% 25% -45.7%
20% -56.0% 0% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage128d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 15 $7 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records