Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x611c…c982
economics · 50 markets active 129d ago
1.0score
+$9,899 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,899 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY economics specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
Avg bet$5,042
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 0 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? No 10¢ 0¢ $730 $0 −$730 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10,925 $0 −$10,925 (-100%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $12,097 $0 −$12,097 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1,255 $0 −$1,255 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $10,973 +$1,748 +16%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 20 $13,974 −$4,269 -30%
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? Dec 31 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Dec 19 $536 +$130 +24%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 11 $15,738 −$12,773 -81%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $1,371 +$1,168 +85%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 05 $4,605 +$207 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 05 $1,960 −$155 -8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $3,250 +$216 +7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,200 +$256 +21%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $100 −$43 -43%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $9,976 +$224 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $10,048 +$3,734 +37%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 05 $200 −$125 -62%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 05 $29,974 −$24,740 -82%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 05 $170 −$140 -82%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31? Jul 24 $1,392 −$959 -69%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Jul 24 $727 −$329 -45%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 22 $3,764 −$830 -22%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 22 $5,587 −$1,368 -24%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 22 $5,843 −$920 -16%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Jul 22 $496 +$10 +2%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 07 $606 +$122 +20%
Solana ETF approved in 2025? Jul 07 $1,014 +$94 +9%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jun 30 $4,781 +$6,490 +136%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 28 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $970 +$492 +51%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? May 30 $994 −$897 -90%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 13 $5,420 +$1,623 +30%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 05 $1,000 −$600 -60%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 19 $4,151 −$3,689 -89%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $2,041 −$1,805 -88%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 03 $32 −$5 -15%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Feb 12 $8,652 −$6,264 -72%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 23 $13,758 −$11,245 -82%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 23 $1,504 −$195 -13%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 03 $1,498 −$1,498 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Dec 16 $5,125 +$118 +2%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 16 $8,743 +$2,682 +31%
Bitcoin new all time high in 2024? Nov 06 $3,756 +$2,544 +68%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $20,020 +$10,313 +52%
Ethereum all time high in Q3 2024? Oct 02 $71 −$71 -100%
VP debate before election? Oct 02 $11,017 +$14,884 +135%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Sep 27 $2,035 −$173 -8%
Solana above $135 on September 20? Sep 23 $20,000 +$210 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 19 $1,072 +$928 +87%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Sep 18 $9,665 +$36,100 +374%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 58% −$21,683
politics 23% +$21,257
crypto 18% +$11,873
other 1% −$51
sports 1% −$1,498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $12,722 128d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 20¢ $9,632 142d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $172 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $150 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $24 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $8 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $17 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $17 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $860 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $86 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $43 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $18 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $172 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $18 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $24 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $23 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $12 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $57 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 86¢ $9,273 146d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 160d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 160d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 5¢ $94 160d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 160d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 160d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 160d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,026 160d
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 162d
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 162d
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 162d
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 50 +32.8% +20.2% 46% 30% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.2% 30% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 24% -14.5%
15% -1.8% 20% -22.7%
20% -11.5% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records