Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x611c…ff68 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-19%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days+$1
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$180
other 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -70.9% -73.7% 25% 25% -92.4%
≤30d 34 -3.8% -13.0% 41% 41% -35.0%
≤90d 34 -3.8% -13.0% 41% 41% -35.0%
all 34 -3.8% -13.0% 41% 41% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 41% -35.0%
10% -21.3% 38% -41.2%
15% -28.9% 26% -46.9%
20% -35.9% 24% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage21d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$31 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$23 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$10 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 30 $7 +$21 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 30 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 30 $25 +$20 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 30 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 30 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 30 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 29 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $59 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $37 +$19 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 29 $9 +$24 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 29 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $56 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 28 $76 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $16 −$10 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $29 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records