Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x611d…6cc5 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$10
sports 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 55% -9.2%
≤30d 11 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 55% -9.2%
≤90d 11 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 55% -9.2%
all 11 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 55% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 55% -9.2%
10% -24.1% 36% -17.9%
15% -31.5% 27% -25.8%
20% -38.2% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$37 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jordan 34¢ 32¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $86 +$58 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $169 −$168 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $78 +$13 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 +$101 +140%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 $0 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 +$13 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $57 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 34¢ $15 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $21 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $57 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $13 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $86 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $81 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $88 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $78 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $72 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $62 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $2 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $2 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.23 · official $161.23 (match) · 24 history records