Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6125…4f6f crypto 614 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$385 (+3%) realized +$388 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate43%265W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1134.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 613 +3.7% -6.2% 43% 18% -10.0%
≤30d 613 +3.7% -6.2% 43% 18% -10.0%
≤90d 613 +3.7% -6.2% 43% 18% -10.0%
all 613 +3.7% -6.2% 43% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1134.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 18% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 10% -18.6%
15% -23.4% 6% -26.5%
20% -30.9% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses265 / 348
Open positions1
Markets (closed)613 / 614
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1134.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 53¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 32¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$32 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.85 · official $62.85 (match) · 3184 history records