Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x6127…23d3 politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+6%) realized +$140 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate79%27W / 7L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$40
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$69
tech 22% +$33
other 22% +$1
politics 5% −$14
finance 4% +$37
crypto 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 0% -3.3%
≤30d 6 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 33% -4.3%
≤90d 33 +3.1% -6.7% 79% 64% -3.8%
all 34 +3.1% -6.7% 79% 62% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 62% -3.9%
10% -15.7% 6% -13.1%
15% -23.8% 3% -21.5%
20% -31.3% 3% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses27 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage101d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 91¢ 92¢ $329 $330 +$1 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 65¢ 58¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $327 +$22 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $197 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $175 +$22 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $157 +$18 +11%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? May 29 $61 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $94 +$3 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $92 +$3 +3%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 18 $82 +$9 +12%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 15 $76 +$10 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $98 +$16 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 07 $32 −$16 -50%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $93 +$7 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $25 +$5 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $16 −$5 -28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 29 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 22 $9 +$1 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? Apr 19 $33 −$19 -59%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $87 +$12 +14%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Apr 06 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $35 +$5 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -81%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $66 −$26 -39%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 65¢ $19 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 92¢ $225 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 90¢ $106 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $349 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $46 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $28 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $22 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $21 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $23 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $52 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $193 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $197 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $150 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $175 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $58 20d
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $58 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 24d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 87¢ $87 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $97 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $94 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 97¢ $95 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 93¢ $92 31d
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 31d
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 34d
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 34d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $87 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $48 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.79 · official $346.97 (match) · 97 history records