Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6128…b632 crypto 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$116 (-2%) realized −$75 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%108W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$461
7 days−$340
14 days−$239
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$686
sports 34% +$839
other 23% −$548
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -55.0% -59.3% 22% 20% -17.7%
≤30d 90 -46.9% -52.0% 27% 24% -14.5%
≤90d 103 -30.0% -36.7% 34% 31% -10.2%
all 298 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 33% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 33% -15.3%
10% -31.0% 29% -23.4%
15% -37.7% 24% -30.8%
20% -43.8% 21% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses108 / 190
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)298 / 304
History coverage150d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 30¢ $200 $159 −$41 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$10 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $205 +$37 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $55 −$52 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $214 −$210 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $32 +$19 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $112 +$132 +118%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$18 +23%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $213 +$182 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$28 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 17 $48 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$28 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-27? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Jun 16 $13 +$15 +118%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-05-01? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-04-27? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Konyaspor vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Jun 16 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 16 $98 +$24 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $204 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $242 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $205 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY No 9¢ $53 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY No 5¢ $2 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $123 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? SELL Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $56 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 94¢ $244 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $95 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 3¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $395 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.46 · official $159.46 (match) · 716 history records