Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
61 0x612a…b3d7 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$63 (-11%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$51
other 9% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 44% +4.5%
≤30d 18 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 44% +4.5%
≤90d 18 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 44% +4.5%
all 18 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 44% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 44% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 44% -5.5%
15% -36.3% 39% -14.6%
20% -42.5% 28% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$24 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $32 +$46 +144%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $81 +$123 +152%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia to win the second half? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $72 +$33 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$9 +59%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $12 +$4 +29%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $32 +$52 +159%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$7 -69%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 −$9 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $57 +$49 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $8 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $4 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $4 1h
Tunisia to win the second half? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $24 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $15 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $16 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $12 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $72 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 38¢ $32 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $3 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $9 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records