Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
61 0x612b…fbf9 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 33% $0
sports 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 16 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage470d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 21 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $1 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 20 $1 $0 -41%
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $49 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $49 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $49 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $49 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $24 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $21 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $25 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $17 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $8 30d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1 343d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $8 362d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 414d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? SELL No 1¢ $0 428d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $7 431d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.37 · official $44.37 (match) · 61 history records