Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x612e…b07d other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-10%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$4
sports 10% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -54.6% -58.9% 0% 0% -22.9%
≤30d 4 -54.6% -58.9% 0% 0% -22.9%
≤90d 4 -54.6% -58.9% 0% 0% -22.9%
all 4 -54.6% -58.9% 0% 0% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.9% 0% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -62.8% 0% -30.3%
15% -66.4% 0% -37.0%
20% -69.7% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 39 history records