Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6132…3d82 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-54%) realized −$396 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$460
other 32% +$5
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -41.7% -47.2% 22% 22% -65.1%
≤30d 9 -41.7% -47.2% 22% 22% -65.1%
≤90d 9 -41.7% -47.2% 22% 22% -65.1%
all 9 -41.7% -47.2% 22% 22% -65.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 22% -65.1%
10% -52.3% 22% -68.4%
15% -56.9% 22% -71.5%
20% -61.1% 22% -74.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$81 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$396
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$27 +140%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$102 +146%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $515 −$460 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.00 · official $26.61 (match) · 17 history records