Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6134…98b0 crypto 1114 markets active 0h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$244 (-3%) realized −$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%654W / 460L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$50
14 days−$48
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$56
crypto 37% −$36
other 19% −$202
politics 0% −$8
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 43% -21.2%
≤30d 295 +2.0% -7.7% 64% 45% -13.1%
≤90d 598 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 46% -12.6%
all 1114 -2.9% -12.1% 59% 43% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 43% -12.7%
10% -20.5% 33% -21.1%
15% -28.2% 25% -28.7%
20% -35.2% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses654 / 460
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1114 / 1114
History coverage248d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1114 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2475 history records