Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6134…c8cc sports 1360 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$882 (-1%) realized −$482 · open −$400
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%756W / 590L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$457est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3,977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days−$459
14 days−$1,040
30 days−$1,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$2,122
other 43% +$1,036
crypto 3% −$254
world 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -12.6% -21.0% 48% 48% -18.4%
≤30d 309 -1.9% -11.3% 58% 54% -14.8%
≤90d 1346 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 54% -10.7%
all 1346 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 54% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 54% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 51% -19.2%
15% -28.2% 45% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 36% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$33 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$3,977
Realized−$482
Unrealized−$400
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses756 / 590
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$457
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1346 / 1360
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,030 $1,027 −$3 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $698 $619 −$79 (-11%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $703 $599 −$103 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $538 $482 −$57 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $503 $453 −$50 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $310 $308 −$2 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $230 $223 −$7 (-3%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $79 −$11 (-12%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner Belgium 70¢ 69¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $23 −$7 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $18 −$22 (-55%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $204 −$122 -60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $264 +$136 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $101 +$43 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $301 −$257 -85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$131 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $483 +$212 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $121 +$55 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $121 −$120 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $121 +$29 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$39 +38%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $79 $0 -0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $122 −$120 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $32 +$10 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $133 +$68 +51%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $97 +$37 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $98 +$34 +34%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 −$83 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$97 +49%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $80 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $99 −$19 -19%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $231 −$228 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 +$59 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $127 −$126 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $67 +$20 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $44 +$22 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $91 −$90 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 −$2 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $47 −$46 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $37 −$34 -90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $34 +$20 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $123 +$56 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $18 +$13 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $113 +$78 +69%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $99 −$71 -72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 +$73 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,054 21m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner BUY Belgium 70¢ $76 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $233 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $310 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 24¢ $81 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $61 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $143 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $264 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner SELL Germany 99¢ $144 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner BUY Germany 69¢ $101 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $238 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $204 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $333 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $66 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $153 43h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $476 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $163 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $179 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $216 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $412 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,977.49 · official $3,977.51 (match) · 3500 history records