Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6139…8919
other · 126 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$35 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage122d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Raptors 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Nuggets Lakers 38¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Raptors Raptors 43¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Grizzlies 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $275 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $303 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $299 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $291 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $281 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $321 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $316 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $305 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $233 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 03 $311 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $270 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $283 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 29 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $303 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $296 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $488 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $505 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $537 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$21
politics 30% −$16
sports 12% +$2
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 11h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $275 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $275 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $245 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 20d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 20d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $299 21d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $299 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $291 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $291 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 24d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $281 24d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $281 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 26d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $222 26d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $222 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $253 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $253 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 400 history records