Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6139…6b7a world 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$725,804 (+105%) realized +$703,635 · open +$22,169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%47W / 324L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,815per market
Trades / day119.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$409,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$15,978
politics 33% −$4,404
other 19% +$33,535
crypto 9% +$400
finance 0% −$739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 331 -65.2% -68.5% 7% 5% -64.9%
≤30d 371 -54.5% -58.8% 13% 8% -49.6%
≤90d 371 -54.5% -58.8% 13% 8% -49.6%
all 371 -54.5% -58.8% 13% 8% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.8% 8% -49.6%
10% -62.7% 7% -54.5%
15% ← realistic here -66.3% 5% -58.9%
20% -69.6% 5% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$773) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,009 vs −$1,003 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$409,070
Realized+$703,635
Unrealized+$22,169
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses47 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Open positions164
Markets (closed)371 / 144
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$4,815
Trades / day119.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 164 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $25,000 $33,425 +$8,425 (+34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 59¢ 85¢ $22,702 $32,690 +$9,989 (+44%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 70¢ 99¢ $22,915 $32,268 +$9,353 (+41%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 42¢ $20,783 $24,305 +$3,522 (+17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $18,540 $19,850 +$1,310 (+7%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $25,000 $16,575 −$8,425 (-34%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $13,139 $13,769 +$630 (+5%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 81¢ 98¢ $9,671 $11,701 +$2,031 (+21%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 73¢ 98¢ $8,033 $10,789 +$2,756 (+34%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $9,247 $10,284 +$1,037 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $9,100 $9,550 +$450 (+5%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6,992 $9,323 +$2,331 (+33%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $9,615 $9,189 −$426 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 84¢ 82¢ $8,400 $8,250 −$150 (-2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 60¢ 88¢ $5,639 $8,227 +$2,588 (+46%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $7,220 $7,283 +$62 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 56¢ 50¢ $8,038 $7,122 −$916 (-11%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 67¢ 99¢ $3,629 $5,350 +$1,721 (+47%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 71¢ 95¢ $3,849 $5,138 +$1,289 (+33%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 75¢ 84¢ $4,601 $5,095 +$494 (+11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 27¢ $6,574 $5,027 −$1,547 (-24%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No 99¢ 98¢ $4,927 $4,877 −$50 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 58¢ 60¢ $4,665 $4,785 +$121 (+3%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $3,890 $4,105 +$214 (+6%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 42¢ 79¢ $1,960 $3,693 +$1,733 (+88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Trump tweet on inauguration day? Jun 15 $549 −$549 -100%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win fewer than 100 seats i Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"? Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" at debate? Jun 15 $752 −$751 -100%
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? Jun 15 $1,034 −$636 -62%
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia speech on Oct 15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 15 $495 +$660 +133%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 15 $23,825 −$23,825 -100%
Will the Jatiya Party finish with the second most seats in the Banglad Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "All The Stars" first? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump positive favorability on March 1? Jun 15 $1,591 −$1,591 -100%
Will Navid Shomali be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the US strike Iraq next? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win fewer than 60 seats in the 2026 Thai Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 15 $1,764 −$1,590 -90%
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Jun 15 $2,816 −$2,816 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? Jun 15 $151 −$851 -564%
Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30? Jun 15 $6,234 −$6,234 -100%
Will Jonathan Gullis – Reform UK win the Gorton and Denton by-election Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 15 $489 +$127 +26%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Jun 15 $481 −$481 -100%
Trump positive favorability on April 1? Jun 15 $2,577 −$2,577 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 15 $559 −$559 -100%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $687 −$687 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $673 −$1,948 -290%
Will the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win 140 or more seats in the 2026 Tha Jun 15 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference? Jun 15 $938 −$938 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 9, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the US strike ≤1 countries in February 2026? Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"? Jun 15 $68 −$66 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $81 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $36 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $269 3m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $43 37m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 40m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $21 49m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $42 49m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $42 50m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 50m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 51m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $34 51m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 51m
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 42¢ $1 52m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $28 53m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 54m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $115 56m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,075 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $8,555 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409,069.99 · official $409,056.52 (match) · 3500 history records