Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x613a…2185 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,736 (-26%) realized −$1,619 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$773
crypto 25% −$1,066
other 18% −$79
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -38.6% -44.5% 27% 27% -43.4%
≤30d 11 -38.6% -44.5% 27% 27% -43.4%
≤90d 11 -38.6% -44.5% 27% 27% -43.4%
all 11 -38.6% -44.5% 27% 27% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 27% -43.4%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 18% -48.8%
15% -54.6% 18% -53.7%
20% -59.1% 18% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$332 vs −$350 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,823
Realized−$1,619
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions14
Markets (closed)11 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $640 $631 −$9 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 18¢ $508 $470 −$38 (-8%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $429 $375 −$55 (-13%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card) Melsik Baghdasaryan 22¢ 22¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 26¢ $56 $45 −$11 (-19%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 55¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $227 −$227 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $740 −$740 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $590 +$67 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $536 −$58 -11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$359 +178%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $637 +$571 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,488 −$1,378 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 9m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $85 9m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $520 11m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $40 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $17 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 22¢ $69 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 22¢ $181 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 21¢ $46 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,461 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $498 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $275 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $464 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $346 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 66¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $39 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $136 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 88¢ $76 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 88¢ $43 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 90¢ $471 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $72 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,823.23 · official $1,823.23 (match) · 57 history records