Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
61 0x613b…da44 weather 873 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3498 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$13,901 (+5843%) realized +$11,939 · open +$1,962
Gross ROI / mkt +235% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +158% what you keep after slip
Net edge+158%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate75%141W / 48L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day3498.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$1,854
weather 34% +$71
tech 5% +$46
crypto 4% +$13
sports 3% +$52
politics 1% +$5
world 1% +$5
finance 0% +$3
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3498 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+203.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +235.4% +203.4% 75% 72% +103.2%
≤30d 189 +235.4% +203.4% 75% 72% +103.2%
≤90d 189 +235.4% +203.4% 75% 72% +103.2%
all 189 +235.4% +203.4% 75% 72% +103.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3498.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +203.4% 72% +103.2%
10% ← realistic here +174.4% 71% +83.7%
15% +147.9% 69% +66.0%
20% +123.6% 66% +49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +127% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +235% · $-wt +127% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +218% → late +252% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.93 per $1 lost it wins $8.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,160
Realized+$11,939
Unrealized+$1,962
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses141 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions500
Markets (closed)189 / 873
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day3498.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will anyone say "Bombshell" 5+ times during Love Island E20? Yes 41¢ $0 $41 +$40 (+10050%)
Will George Pickens play for Arizona Cardinals in 2026-27? Yes 39¢ $0 $39 +$39 (+19375%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27? Yes 42¢ $0 $35 +$35 (+21038%)
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 47¢ $0 $34 +$34 (+15550%)
Will Platense win Copa Libertadores? Yes 33¢ $0 $31 +$31 (+7489%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 31¢ $1 $31 +$30 (+4311%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2026-27? Yes 48¢ $0 $30 +$30 (+20880%)
Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+7306%)
Will Waldo Cortes Acosta be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ $0 $28 +$28 (+7501%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? Yes 45¢ $0 $28 +$28 (+45000%)
Will Joey Bosa play for New England Patriots in 2026-27? Yes 44¢ $0 $27 +$27 (+6974%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27? Yes 43¢ $0 $27 +$26 (+18680%)
Will Jamieson Greer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes 29¢ $1 $26 +$25 (+3852%)
Will Jack Grealish join Napoli? Yes 24¢ $1 $24 +$24 (+3958%)
Will Catalina "Titi" Tcherkaski win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 42¢ $0 $24 +$24 (+5943%)
Will Sandefjord win Norway Eliteserien? Yes 46¢ $0 $24 +$23 (+15575%)
Will Myles Garrett be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 47¢ $0 $22 +$22 (+15876%)
Will Robert Lewandowski join Napoli? Yes 38¢ $0 $22 +$21 (+6225%)
Will Ante Delija be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ $1 $21 +$21 (+3691%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + USR + AUR? Yes 35¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+11796%)
Will Jaylen Brown play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 21¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+10275%)
Will Alexandre Pantoja be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes 18¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+6067%)
Will Aidan Barry Owens win Chopped Castaways Season 1? Yes 18¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+5328%)
Will Robert Lewandowski join AC Milan? Yes 41¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+5734%)
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 20¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+8135%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -91%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 22-28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -88%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +200%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +125%
Will Justin Crawford win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 26 $0 $0 +199%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +482%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +125%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 26 $0 $0 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 -71%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -93%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 +$1 +147%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 26 $0 +$1 +244%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -93%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $0 +$2 +384%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +478%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 -43%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +18378%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +240%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? Jun 26 $0 $0 +362%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 +$2 +618%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +369%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +314%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $400? Jun 26 $0 $0 +30%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +120%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 65°F or below on June 2 Jun 26 $0 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 26 $0 $0 -61%
Will s1mple retire by June 30? Jun 26 $0 $0 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 26 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 +$2 +533%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $0 +$1 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 -44%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 4, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 +15137%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 28? Jun 26 $1 $0 +46%
Will Iraq be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 -55%
Will Australia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Garlin Gilchrist win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primar BUY Yes $0 0m
Will Garlin Gilchrist win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primar BUY Yes $0 0m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 28? SELL Yes $0 0m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes $1 0m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, BUY Yes $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY Yes $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, BUY Yes $0 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $308 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 22-28? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on July 1? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 29? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 BUY Yes $0 5m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 27? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes $1 6m
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? SELL Yes $0 8m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY Yes $0 8m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY Yes $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes $0 10m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY Yes $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes $0 10m
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of June? BUY Yes $0 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,159.81 · official $3,099.97 · 3500 history records