Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x613b…c354 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+9%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$157
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 50% +3.1%
≤30d 6 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 50% +3.1%
≤90d 6 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 50% +3.1%
all 6 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 50% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 50% +3.1%
10% -26.4% 33% -6.8%
15% -33.5% 33% -15.8%
20% -40.0% 33% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$52 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $572 +$67 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$47 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$131 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $107 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $639 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $572 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $56 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $335 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records