Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
61 0x613b…823a sports 350 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 249d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$603 (-0%) realized −$679 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%179W / 166L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,426per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2,475est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$22,610
other 30% +$23,872
world 3% +$6,322
politics 0% −$700
crypto 0% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +25.3% +13.3% 70% 52% +9.8%
≤30d 61 +5.5% -4.6% 57% 46% -2.3%
≤90d 168 -24.3% -31.5% 41% 36% -13.0%
all 345 -4.8% -13.9% 52% 46% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 46% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 35% -17.5%
15% -29.7% 28% -25.5%
20% -36.6% 21% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,676) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,279 vs −$1,340 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$7,624
Realized−$679
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses179 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2,475
Open positions5
Markets (closed)345 / 350
History coverage250d ⚠
Avg bet$2,426
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $6,324 $6,524 +$200 (+3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 68¢ $540 $536 −$4 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 83¢ 86¢ $304 $314 +$10 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $162 $246 +$85 (+52%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $217 $4 −$213 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $8,058 +$662 +8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,052 +$4,953 +98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12,586 +$12,014 +96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,766 +$5,353 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13,780 +$1,256 +9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17,984 +$24,582 +137%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 21 $2,550 +$443 +17%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $653 +$990 +152%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $719 −$709 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $245 −$6 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $195 −$192 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $773 −$232 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,620 −$1,598 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2,552 +$1,894 +74%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,326 +$1,270 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13,430 −$13,245 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $141 −$138 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1,807 +$1,393 +77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7,498 +$1,502 +20%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $7,806 −$7,804 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,333 +$6 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,394 −$2,353 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,351 +$36 +1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $587 +$233 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $834 +$4,066 +488%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,339 −$2,201 -51%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36,689 +$1,106 +3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46,136 +$4,184 +9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5,412 +$1,138 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10,884 +$5,066 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16,273 +$6,713 +41%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $440 +$262 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $159 +$287 +180%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,816 +$685 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,067 −$3,046 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 −$189 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $652 +$193 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37,478 −$37,314 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $293 −$203 -69%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $975 −$968 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $373 +$112 +30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $896 −$889 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $812 +$388 +48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $774 +$522 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $936 −$926 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $245 +$252 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $21,106 +$209 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $9,266 −$4,056 -44%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $3,088 +$1,342 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1,342 −$1,334 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $545 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $6,274 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $6 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $43 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $6 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $6 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $10 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $35 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $30 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $6 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $18 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $329 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $45 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $4,960 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $484 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $9 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $70 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $36 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $31 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $2 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $1,514 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $475 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $13 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $2,194 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $215 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $1 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 49¢ $2 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 49¢ $5,050 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $690 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $560 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,623.90 · official $7,623.90 (match) · 3500 history records