Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x613c…e423 weather 429 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$800 (+1%) realized +$793 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate59%252W / 172L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$44,197
weather 6% −$30
crypto 1% −$23
politics 0% +$3
finance 0% −$6
other 0% +$1
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +144.9% +121.6% 100% 83% -9.0%
≤30d 390 -1.7% -11.1% 59% 16% -8.2%
≤90d 424 +8.3% -2.0% 59% 19% +43.2%
all 424 +8.3% -2.0% 59% 19% +43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 19% +43.2%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 16% +29.5%
15% -20.0% 14% +17.0%
20% -27.8% 13% +5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$5 · ×35.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.84 per $1 lost it wins $51.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$2,526
Realized+$793
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses252 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)424 / 429
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$182
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 75¢ $1,575 $1,578 +$3 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $704 $706 +$3 (+0%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $101 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $104 $100 −$4 (-4%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $40,330 +$196 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $5 +$5 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 +$6 +177%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $416 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$11 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$7 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$7 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $58 29m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $319 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $152 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $203 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $111 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $375 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $370 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $73 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $11 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $174 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $375 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $230 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $950 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $625 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $481 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $73 15h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $24 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,525.68 · official $2,526.09 (match) · 3500 history records