Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6142…367b
crypto · 1244 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$453 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$132 · open −$288
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,215
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$288
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses614 / 599
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1213 / 1244
History coverage16d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day157.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 35 History 1213 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$78
14 days−$643
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $280 $322 +$42 (+15%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $119 $125 +$6 (+5%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $74 $81 +$6 (+8%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes 46¢ 16¢ $138 $49 −$89 (-64%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 80¢ 12¢ $281 $44 −$237 (-84%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $36 $28 −$7 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $26 +$7 (+36%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 64¢ 64¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-13%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 49¢ 48¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $11 +$2 (+30%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$8 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$18 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$18 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$14 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$15 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$13 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$165
other 7% −$435
sports 6% +$132
politics 2% +$48
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 473 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 50% -11.3%
≤30d 1213 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 51% -10.4%
≤90d 1213 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 51% -10.4%
all 1213 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 51% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 51% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 51% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 50% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 50% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,215.22 · official $1,227.54 · 3500 history records