Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6143…2091 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
world 33% $0
politics 17% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage284d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $140 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $45 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $11 +$1 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 +6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 23 $2 $0 -15%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 19 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $41 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $45 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $117K September 8–14? Sep 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Sep 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 11 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 50m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 50m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $46 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $45 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 30h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records