Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x6147…d34e politics 563 markets active 2h ago coverage 796d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,538 (+2%) realized +$1,546 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%305W / 249L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 22% −$968
sports 22% +$2,333
world 17% −$80
other 15% −$127
crypto 14% +$209
economics 5% +$83
tech 4% +$184
culture 1% +$22
finance 0% −$160
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.5% +19.9% 75% 50% -17.0%
≤30d 7 +37.1% +24.1% 71% 57% -13.1%
≤90d 77 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 29% -15.0%
all 554 -3.9% -13.1% 55% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 34% -7.9%
10% -21.4% 26% -16.7%
15% -29.0% 19% -24.8%
20% -36.0% 16% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$39 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

796d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$1,546
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses305 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)554 / 563
History coverage796d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $63 $59 −$4 (-7%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $40 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 19 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$6 +180%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $206 +$2 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +67%
Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $28 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 19 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 19 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Apr 19 $35 −$9 -27%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $9 $0 +3%
Will the next elected US president be a woman? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 19 $12 −$2 -12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 19 $17 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Apr 19 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 19 $272 −$272 -100%
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? Apr 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 19 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? Apr 19 $283 +$42 +15%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Apr 19 $172 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $218 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 19 $24 −$21 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 19 $13 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 19 $251 +$223 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 19 $19 −$15 -82%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $81 −$6 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Apr 17 $543 −$18 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $70 −$17 -24%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 16 $52 +$2 +3%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $291 +$9 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 14 $134 −$70 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 14 $74 −$25 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 14 $56 −$35 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $320 +$12 +4%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March? Apr 10 $15 +$24 +164%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $290 +$6 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $127 +$24 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 24¢ $13 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $15 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $13 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $0 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $2 3d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 88¢ $9 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $3 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o BUY Yes $1 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY Yes $5 3d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? BUY No 67¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $92 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $175 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $35 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $6 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $6 7d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 9d
Will Betmoar launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 63d
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.27 · official $275.27 (match) · 2642 history records