Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x6149…0191 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,070 (-8%) realized −$1,070 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%46W / 1L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$14
politics 36% −$1,086
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 47 -0.1% -9.7% 98% 0% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -17.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -25.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -32.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1,086 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$2,596
Realized−$1,070
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses46 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage617d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,305 $1,304 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $800 $800 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $491 $491 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $298 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $906 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1,382 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $393 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $969 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 22 $1,222 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from September 16 to September 23, 202 Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by September 30? Feb 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Feb 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $147 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $505 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $5,019 −$1,086 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $491 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $800 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,305 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $906 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $298 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,382 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $393 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $969 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,222 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 103d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $7 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $9 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 278d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $6 278d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 278d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 278d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem BUY No 100¢ $4 278d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from September 16 to September 23, 202 BUY No 100¢ $1 278d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 278d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 278d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 278d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $3 278d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,595.59 · official $2,595.59 (match) · 101 history records