Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x614b…8488
sports · 18 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$240 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$240 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$13
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage87d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Japan 91¢ 90¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 +$1 +10%
Club Alianza Atlético leading at halftime? Jun 07 $17 +$1 +8%
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? May 21 $1,140 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026? May 21 $80 −$3 -4%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5 May 21 $11 $0 +4%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) May 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi Mar 20 $1,218 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 20 $167 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Mar 20 $1,126 +$1 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 20 $167 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 20 $1,066 +$30 +3%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 20 $71 −$11 -15%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 20 $1,122 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2 Mar 20 $240 +$20 +8%
76ers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5 Mar 20 $80 +$110 +138%
Magic vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline Mar 20 $166 +$94 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$30
politics 45% +$1
sports 5% +$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $13 1h
Spread: Italy (-1.5) BUY Greece 91¢ $16 7d
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $18 14d
Club Alianza Atlético leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $17 24d
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) BUY Girona FC 90¢ $20 31d
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $11 47d
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi SELL No 95¢ $1,153 85d
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi BUY No 95¢ $799 85d
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi BUY No 95¢ $356 85d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $54 85d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $16 85d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $94 85d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $167 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,128 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 96¢ $800 85d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 96¢ $326 85d
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL Yes 10¢ $167 85d
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY Yes 10¢ $68 85d
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 85d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 95¢ $1,096 85d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 93¢ $380 85d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 93¢ $687 85d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $60 85d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $32 85d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $39 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 91¢ $1,135 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY No 92¢ $682 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY No 92¢ $457 85d
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi SELL Yes $8 85d
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi SELL Yes $54 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 0% -0.8%
≤30d 7 +5.4% -4.7% 71% 14% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +13.3% +2.5% 59% 18% -6.3%
all 17 +13.3% +2.5% 59% 18% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 18% -6.3%
10% -7.3% 12% -15.3%
15% -16.2% 12% -23.5%
20% -24.5% 12% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.67 · official $12.67 (match) · 52 history records