Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x614e…ddf8
politics · 50 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$77 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$75 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Chart Positions 13 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$19
14 days+$46
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$3 +7%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 12 $62 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $14 +$4 +26%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $1 +$5 +488%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $17 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 09 $37 +$3 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$4 +170%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 03 $19 +$8 +46%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 03 $32 +$14 +44%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 01 $10 +$5 +45%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $6 $0 +5%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $1 +$1 +52%
Will MrBeast hit 126 billion views by June 30? May 30 $24 +$1 +4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $8 +$1 +17%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Will MrBeast say "MrBeast" during his next YouTube video? May 27 $2 −$1 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $6 +$2 +39%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 124 billion views by May 31? May 23 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 20 $567 +$20 +4%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 14 $13 +$5 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 85% +$39
politics 7% +$9
world 7% +$23
finance 1% +$7
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 11h
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 11h
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 13h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June SELL Yes 62¢ $2 14h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 100¢ $12 34h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 100¢ $6 40h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 43h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $3 43h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 20¢ $1 45h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 34¢ $1 45h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 97¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 2d
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $11 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL No 88¢ $10 2d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 3d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 4d
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 4d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL No 88¢ $18 5d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL No 88¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 94¢ $19 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +31.1% +18.6% 85% 25% -1.6%
≤30d 37 +19.0% +7.6% 84% 32% -2.3%
≤90d 37 +19.0% +7.6% 84% 32% -2.3%
all 37 +19.0% +7.6% 84% 32% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 32% -2.3%
10% -2.7% 27% -11.7%
15% -12.1% 24% -20.2%
20% -20.7% 11% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.10 · official $535.10 (match) · 116 history records