Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x614e…b33c politics 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$8
sports 10% −$1
world 3% $0
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$627
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage118d
Avg bet$523
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $396 $396 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $4,037 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $3 −$1 -50%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $912 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 9m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 24m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 2h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 8h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 9h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 14h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 22h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 26h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 28h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 28h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 30h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 31h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 32h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 35h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 39h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 41h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 43h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 44h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 44h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 44h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.79 · official $626.79 (match) · 165 history records